As the two major political parties battle it out for a chance to preside over the cocoa, gold and oil resources of Ghana for the next four years, it has become clear that the presidency will not be decided by the swing regions as usual, but probably one of the parties’ strongholds.
It is now on record that the ruling National Democratic Congress party has vowed to scoop as much as one million votes from the compound of the opposition New Patriotic Party in the Ashanti region and share the spoils in the Eastern Region as well in their operation 50:50.
Interestingly too, the opposition New Patriotic Party has gained much confidence in recent times leading the party’s officials in the coveted World Bank of the National Democratic Congress in the Volta region to declare 30% of Volta votes for the party in the upcoming general election.
These developments should call for an exciting contest just five months to come in a very intriguing manner judging from the fact that the two major parties had previously maximized their efforts in their strongholds rather than wasting valuable time and resources in “enemy territory”.
In perspective, the highest figure in percentage terms for the NDC in the Ashanti region is the 28.67% the party garnered in the 2012 presidential election as against 25.61% in 2008. This figure primarily boosts the confidence of the NDC as they saw their 2008 tally of 479,633 votes for John Mills rise by 131,971 to 611,604 for John Mahama in 2012.
That said, it is right and justifiably so for the party to excite itself in the possibility of regularly increasing its tally in the region. However, the issues and facts that support their determination are not new, but presently tainted.
First of all, the NDC has largely been seen as a northern party, winning elections in all three regions up north since 1992. And looking at the correlation between the three northern regions and the Ashanti region, it is clear and without dispute to say that the two regions are integrating at a faster speed than any other regions in socio-economic terms.
The people from the three northern regions have indeed established cultural hubs in significant parts of the Ashanti region. The Zongo communities easily come to mind, but the extension of the three regions in the north to the Ashanti region goes beyond the penetration of Zongo communities.
Therefore, it is only natural and reasonable to realize that as many more northerners who are mostly tied to the NDC move and settle in the Ashanti region, the votes of the NDC definitely increases in that proportion.
Secondly, it is important to note that the marriage between the three northern regions and Ashanti region has been established and continues to flourish because of the push and pull factors of migration caused by huge economic disparities between the two regions.
In this case, it is problematic for the NDC to assume significance in the Ashanti Region because the economic parameters that favored this marriage of Ashanti and northern Ghana have been significantly distorted. This is because of the nationwide distribution of poverty and hardships which has not left out the Ashanti region.
And so with the comfort of migrant population from the north destabilized by voluminous rise in cost of living and cost of doing business leading to rise in unemployment in record proportions and deepening of poverty, that portion of the NDC votes are most likely going to be affected.
Additionally, the relationship between the Ashantis and northerners has most of the time played out against the fortunes of the NPP in the region. Northerners are most often chastised and denigrated by their Ashanti colleagues in so harsh terms that they often resent the NPP which they see as an extension of the Ashantis. Unsurprisingly, the NDC has often sought the least of opportunities to pitch northerners against Ashantis in every election year.
However, with the economic challenges of the country as a shared commonality between Ashantis and northerners, the concentration this time is most likely to be on the party that can best turn their fortunes around.
Besides, a noticeable humble and mild expression of the opposition leader, Nana Akuffo Addo has quite impacted positively on the communications posture of the party officials and thereby endearing him and the party to a lot more northerners who now consider him capable of being a calm father for all.
Finally, the Akyem–Ashanti rivalry as epitomized by the Kufuor, Alan–Nana factions has impacted on the performance of the NPP in the Ashanti region. This is so significant that political analysts believe it was the major driving factor that caused a change of government in 2009, and the NDC has brilliantly worked out another perfect plan to divide the ranks of the NPP in that direction.
However, very brave decisions taken by the leadership of the party to discipline top party officials is enough to portray the party as one focused on maintaining a strong identity, and not one willing to tolerate everything just for the sake of winning an election.
So the hopes of the NDC securing their one million votes target in the Ashanti region are very loose and virtually empty.
Contrary to the imagination of the NDC that they will attain their one million votes because their votes tally has been appreciating over the years in the Ashanti region, without due consideration of the permutations therein, the NPP’s position has been established by a determination of the Volta region led by their chiefs, to crown the NPP with the presidency.
Scientific studies and theories have thought us that patterns are very key in determining future events. This is helpful to the NDC’s analysis because they have consistently been appreciating in the Ashanti region.
Unfortunately however, social phenomena such as elections and human decisions are determined by the environmental, social and economic conditions of the time. This is the major reason why previous results of the NDC in Ashanti have taken them to dreamland. They may well learn from the NPP who consistently appreciated in the Volta Region to a high of 14.98% in 2008 only to fall back to 12.93% in 2012.
The NPP as has been this time, remained cautious, wary of setting targets especially in their worst territory until they were virtually invited and called upon by the chiefs of the land they dread the most electorally, to rise up and stake their claim.
On May 20, 2016, the chief of the Mafi Traditional Area, Togbe Atatim whiles speaking on behalf of chiefs of South and Central Tongu in a meeting with NPP Flagbearer, Nana Akuffo Addo, expressed confidence in Nana Akuffo Addo saying he is “capable of rising to the occasion and will not disappoint us” if he is given the opportunity to occupy the presidency.
The chief numbered various projects which were either done or started by the NPP government under President Kuffuor to back his confidence in the opposition leader. He mentioned the upgrading of Adidome Senior High School, construction of Adidome-Sogakope-Kpedzeglo road, Adidome town roads and the police headquarters in Adidome.
The loss of faith of the Volta chiefs in the Mahama government is clear from the speech of the chiefs. This is because in most instances, the chiefs will only beautifully commend the candidate and party they are hosting without saying a thing about their darling candidate or party. But this was not the case as the chiefs expressed utter disappointment in the NDC government for abandoning important projects started in the region by the NPP such as the police headquarters in Adidome.
Again, on 21 May, 2016, the NPP flag bearer gained public discussion for his mammoth rally at Keta which attracted a record crowd. The opposition leader’s call on the crowd to ignore the propaganda of the NDC was on point judging from the fact that the NDC has used every means to secure their World Bank apart from meaningful development for Voltarians.
As panicking as the NDC could be, they struggled to downplay the crowd that poured out to listen to Nana Addo by first attributing it to busing of supporters and later suggesting the influence of the market day.
Whatever, the reason for such an unusual crowd, it is important to note that the main purpose of a political rally is not to find out why people come to listen to you, but to attract the numbers and sell your message and policies to them. It is quiet important in this case to realize that the percentage of people a candidate can attract at a rally is only proportional to the total number of people at the rally.
If the NPP could not attract this crowd in the past, there are many reasons why they got it this time around.
Also, on 24 May, 2016, the founder of the ruling NDC government, Jerry Rawlings, did the boom again. This time, it was open and very disastrous. The former President expressed disappointment in the NDC in recent times and labeled them alongside other Nkrumahists political parties “criminals” who pretend to be pursuing the Nkrumah ideology.
This open disappointment of the NDC founder expressed about the party that has the consistent support of the Volta Region is seen as the feeling of the larger Voltarian community. It is also important to note that Jerry Rawlings remains the reason for the Volta region being the World Bank of the NDC.
The question now is this: will the residents remain in the palace if the chief leaves the palace because he doesn’t consider it safe again?
Quite importantly, the same JJ seemed to have dispelled all fears of his followers in the Volta region about the NPP flag bearer. The people of the region are seen to have the impression that Nana Akuffo Addo will not be any friend to the Volta Region considering the alleged animosity between Ewes and Akans.
But the man they trust with every blood in their veins said, “whatever Nana Addo’s shortcomings, tribalism is not one of them”. It is seen by many as a blanket statement to suggest that people in the Volta region should feel free to vote for the NPP leader because he is not what the NDC says he is.
Comparatively, I leave it for Ghanaians to judge the audacity of the two parties to stake out claims for percentages and numbers in their opponents strongholds.
But quiet humbly, the NPP has solid grounds, based on the confidence of Volta chiefs in their flag bearer; the disappointment of the Volta chiefs and people in the NDC government; the eagerness of the people of the Volta to listen to their flag bearer; the disappointment of Jerry Rawlings in the NDC; and the confidence of Jerry Rawlings that the NPP flag bearer is not tribal.
Therefore, by staking claim for 30% of Volta votes, the NPP has ordinarily acknowledged the confidence of Voltarians in their party. Even though Voltarians may be disappointed in the NPP for not claiming an even higher stake, November or December 7 definitely promises to be interesting for all who live to that date.
However, no matter the justification of the NPP to target 30% of Volta votes, there is definitely more work to do.
It is an open secret that the NPP has more Assembly Members in most districts in the region. That said, the party should not put these Assembly Members in the fore front of their campaign since such an act has negative ramifications. The Assembly Members should be made to appear as neutral individuals who can definitely affect constituents with their private and personal views on the performance of the government in power. And because they are seen as neutral Assembly Members, their personal opinions are most likely to be appreciated by voters.
In addition, the tendency of the NPP to obtain 30% of the votes in Volta Region is only expressed in the open space of big rallies and TV and radio broadcasts as well as in the minds of the elite population. Once the NDC realizes that it has lost the intelligentsia, it most often shifts focus to the hinterlands where it can use every falsehood and material resources to deceive the electorate therein to vote for them. In this regard, the NPP has to activate its polling station executive machinery to counter every NDC falsehood and project rightly, the policy message of the flag bearer.
Also, the party leadership ought to be overly cautious in their expressions even in moments of greater confrontations. This is because a desperate NDC party that is well aware of the emerging fortunes of the NPP in the Volta region will manufacture every statement, and massage every word of NPP communicators against the good people of the Volta region.
Finally, if closer is truly dearer, then it is important for the two top shots of the party, Nana Akuffo Addo and Dr. Bawumia to pay two more visits to the Volta Region before the polls open. It is clear that the people of the Volta region have fallen in love with the most brilliant political and economic brains in our times, and it is only natural and morally demanding that they return that love.
As Ghana enters its most intriguing election ever, the nation seems to be on the horizon of a new frontier in its political development, as it will be the first time ever that an opposition party will come to win a presidential election right in the stronghold of the ruling party. At the end, it will not be by the political smartness or might of the NPP, but by the choice of a new kingmaker in Ghana’s political history: the Volta.
By David Azuliya
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Email: [email protected]
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